RobinX Score — Methodology

Version 1 · Published 2026-07-09 · Last updated 2026-07-10 · Chain: Robinhood Chain (ID 4663) · This page is versioned; changes are logged below.

1. Data foundation

RobinX ingests Robinhood Chain from block 0 (chain genesis, May 2026; public mainnet 2026-07-01) via full-history sweeps, plus a live WebSocket tail that captures every new launch and swap within seconds, re-scored on a rolling cycle. As of 2026-07-10 the corpus covers:

A structural finding baked into the pipeline: RobinFun has no discrete “graduation” event. Every token receives its Uniswap v3 WETH pool at creation (verified across 100% of launches). Milestones like “became tradeable” are therefore computed from swap activity, not read from an event log.

2. Definitions

Real token

A token whose pool has transacted ≥ 1 WETH cumulative volume AND attracted ≥ 20 unique traders. On the genesis corpus (17,037 launches through 2026-07-08), 16.96% of tokens ever became real — versus roughly 1% graduation rates on comparable Solana launchpads.

Deployer score (0–100)

Computed per deployer wallet from complete history: tokens launched, share reaching real activity, dead-token share, best token’s WETH volume, and whether the deployer performs wallet-to-wallet token distribution before dumps (insider-prep pattern). Signals are transparent rules, not a black box — every score returns machine-readable reasons[].

Insider flow

Tokens acquired by transfer rather than purchase. On the genesis corpus, 4,181 wallets (~5% of all traders) received tokens wallet-to-wallet off-market and then sold into pools, realizing 23,224 WETH (~$40M) — and every one of the top-10 profit wallets on the chain is in this cohort. Insider-share of supply is a first-class risk input in every verdict.

3. Out-of-sample calibration

The score’s discriminating power is tested forward, not backfit. Method: freeze scores at a cutoff block, then measure outcomes of new launches after the cutoff.

Extremes are stark and stable: the deployer behind the chain’s largest token is 7-for-7 on real launches; the largest spam factory is 0-for-325. 288 serial spam factories are currently flagged. Live, refreshed calibration is published continuously at robinx.io/proof.

4. Caller intelligence (X / Twitter)

RobinX joins chain-anchored X mentions to on-chain price series (from our own swap data) to measure which accounts’ posts precede moves. Two disciplines make this credible:

• Chain-anchored matching. A cashtag alone never maps to a token (tickers collide across chains). Mentions attach to a token only via an explicit contract address, a robinhood-slug DEX link, or registry-resolved co-mention.
• Early vs. momentum split. For every call we check the price run in the 30 minutes before the post. A caller who posts after a +50% run is riding momentum, not predicting. On the current corpus the median pre-mention run is +6%, and only 18% of mentions land after a token is already +50% — i.e., genuine early-calling exists on this chain and is measurable.

Per-caller lift (median forward return at +1h/+6h/+24h, win rate, early-rate) is accumulated continuously; callers only enter the public leaderboard once sample sizes are statistically meaningful.

5. Honest limitations

• The chain is young (public mainnet 2026-07-01). Forward windows are short; calibration hardens weekly and this page updates with it.
• Caller samples are small for many accounts (3–14 calls); treat individual caller stats as provisional until n grows.
• Deployer scores can be evaded by wallet rotation; funding-lineage clustering (inheriting reputation across linked wallets) mitigates but does not eliminate this.
• RobinX measures and sells information. Nothing here is investment advice, and RobinX never executes trades.

6. Access

Every signal is served machine-readable: pay-per-call via the x402 API (USDC on Base, no signup, no API key) or through the RobinX MCP server for Claude/Cursor-class agents. Response envelope: {data, signal, confidence, sources, model_used, latency_ms, timestamp} with constrained per-endpoint signal enums (e.g. trusted / mixed / avoid / serial_spammer).

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